how do we know?
- but … infinite number of curves go through data points, and going to multiple regression doesn’t help
- so need theory
- macro specific issues
- data limited
- data multidimensional
- yet more important than any micro-level policy decision. bad macro policy can disrupt the lives of millions of households, with a minor mistake.
- if indeed global economy – and certainly looks that way
- bad macro policy can affect hundreds of millions.
- explore modern macro. from time to time will focus on one core issue, size of “the” (fiscal) multiplier
- but also capstone
- major project
- will brainstorm on Fri, you need to have first proposal on Monday.
- current US macro performance
- π, g, U are 3 big topics
- lots of subsidiary ones: median income, intl stability
- BLS → employment [rather than unemployment]
- current performance anomalous
- correcting for baby boomer retirement makes the picture less grim
- correcting for involuntary short hours makes picture worse
- what other questions should / could we ask?