(Un)Employment data, Oct 2012

From my US and Economics blog.
The data for October 2012 – the last “big” data release before the election — are now available on the Bureau of Labor Statistics web page and on a select basis as graphs on the St Louis Fed FRED database. Here I highlight employment to population, which avoids the “noise” that comes from people dropping in and out of the labor force. This measure also automatically adjusts to population growth (unlike overall employment measures) and, when disaggregated, is neutral to changes in the age composition of the population (e.g., the aging of the baby boomers). For brevity, I delete the age 65+ brackets; all are above their Oct 2009 level, that for age 65-69 by a full percentage point.
The data show steady improvement in the economy, though still modest for those age 16-24. As with all (un)employment data, monthly frequency data are noisy, and these data aren’t seasonally adjusted. But it’s one more picture of an ongoing recovery.
age bracket 16-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64
Oct 2012 26.5% 61.8% 75.0% 76.6% 77.5% 78.4% 77.6% 74.3% 69.2% 52.7%
12 month average 26.0% 61.4% 73.6% 75.5% 76.5% 77.5% 76.6% 73.9% 67.9% 51.7%
change vs avg 0.5 0.4 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.4 1.3 1.1
vs Oct 2011 0.2 -0.3 2.1 1.1 0.8 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.5 1.8
vs Oct 2009 0.3 1.5 1.5 1.3 0.9 2.1 0.4 -0.4 1 1.9

click to expand graph

Full time series, levels, Jan 1994-Oct 2012

…mike smitka…
This entry was posted in Uncategorized and tagged , , , , , , by the prof. Bookmark the permalink.

About the prof

Professor of Economics at Washington and Lee University. I use blogs for my classes, this term (Winter 2013) a senior seminar (Econ 398) that focuses on macroeconomics, and a class on China's Economy (Econ 274). I was driven from a Wall Street job to study economics at Yale by a previous "bubble", the Latin America eurodollar lending boom of the late 1970s that ended in late 1980 (mass defaults didn't hit until 1984). My introduction to macroe was by the late Nobel laureate Jim Tobin, but I studied China as an undergrad at Harvard (though for language I did Japanese). Then at Yale a whole group of people worked on China (Nick Lardy, Barry Naughton, Terry Sicular, Gary Jefferson) or more generally on "socialist" systems (Mike Montias). So I've followed China's economy since roughly 1982, and taught about it since 1987, that is, from the very start of the reform process. My research however focuses on the automotive industry and on Japan. I teach about the former (Econ 244) in W&L's intensive 4-week Spring term, taking students to Detroit to visit factories and R&D centers and to see the impact of industry collapse first-hand; I taught a course on Japan's economy (Econ 272) and on Industrial Organization (Econ 243) Fall 2012. I also post from time to time on blogspot on the auto industry, the US economy, and the Japanese economy.