The recently released March job report and documented slowdown in hiring has had an affect on the strength of the dollar. The strength of the dollar fell for the third straight week, marking the longest loss streak in almost a year. Fewer jobs were added in March than any month since December 2013, and as a result the dollar fell in comparison to all but one of its 16 major currency counterparts. The dollar fell 0.8 percent to $1.0976 compared to the euro and 0.1 percent to 118.97 yen.
Slow first-quarter economic growth for the U.S. has lead many investors to conclude that the Fed will delay previously predicted interest-rate rises as a result. The 126,000 jobs added in March were less than even the most conservative estimates had previously predicted. However, interest rates are still expected to increase in August or September, even if to only momentarily rise above zero.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-04/dollar-falls-third-week-as-jobs-data-clouds-u-s-rate-outlook
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A previous post on the blog talked about how (pre March jobs report) the +250k jobs added each month was unsustainable, but I’m really surprised by the dramatic downturn. Whether the cause is the appreciation of the dollar or winter weather downturn, I think it’s cause for concern about the health of the recovery.
Exchange rates have jumped around a lot this past year. We’ll see whether the random walk continues, or as seems to happen, high volatility alternates with periods of steady rates.
I wonder how the dollar’s volatility will affect consumer confidence in the economy? If the ‘random walk’ continues, will people look to ignore these trends or become more timid when considering US investments?
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