Notes

how do we know?

• econometrics
  • but … infinite number of curves go through data points, and going to multiple regression doesn’t help
  • so need theory
• macro specific issues
  • data limited
  • data multidimensional
• yet more important than any micro-level policy decision. bad macro policy can disrupt the lives of millions of households, with a minor mistake.
  • if indeed global economy – and certainly looks that way
  • bad macro policy can affect hundreds of millions.

course

• explore modern macro. from time to time will focus on one core issue, size of “the” (fiscal) multiplier
• but also capstone
  • major project
  • will brainstorm on Fri, you need to have first proposal on Monday.

today

• current US macro performance
  • π, g, U are 3 big topics
  • lots of subsidiary ones: median income, intl stability
• BLS → employment [rather than unemployment]
  • current performance anomalous
  • correcting for baby boomer retirement makes the picture less grim
  • correcting for involuntary short hours makes picture worse
• what other questions should / could we ask?